Monday, July 19th Portfolio Update, Trade Ideas

I traded two names last week- VVUS (long) and AVNR (short). From the looks of things, I should've held onto my AVNR short. Here's an update from my accounts (only closed trades in the taxable account this week):

Taxable Accounts MTD +/-: 2,364.68

IRA Account MTD +/-: 2,462.20

VVUS (+760.69)

AVNR (+345.78)

I am travelling every weekend until the movers arrive in August because my husband is in the midst of his cycling season. I adore him, so I end up on a lot of road trips with picnic lunches in sweltering heat watching a peloton of sweaty men in spandex go by this time of year.  Nobody talks about this sort of thing before you get married, but this is the ugly truth about compromise, people;)

Since I won't be in front of a computer with much consistency, I am focused on adding to positions for 6-12 week holds. With the MELA and JAZZ FDA panels in September,  and a ton of FDA approval dates in October, I'm more than happy to buy and wait.  Between my IRA and taxable accounts, I am holding VVUS, which I picked up after the plummet, BIOD, MELA and JAZZ.  And part of my JSDA short.   I will add to any of these four positions on any substantial dip before their catalyst dates.  I'll likely buy some AVNR and ARNA as well, when ARNA finally comes back down to earth.

I've had a number of folks ask what I think of specific drugs or chances of approval, and all I can say is this: No matter how amazing or horrible a drug is, the pharmaceutical company that owns is seems to go up in price before the FDA panel or approval date.  Case in point, I think ARNA's weight loss drug barely, if it truly did, meet efficacy.  Safety is great, but who will pay for a drug that doesn't work?  I can sit at home and not lose weight for free!   However, the price it's at now shows how a subpar drug can still rocket a stock price up on anticipation of approval.  ARNA hasn't even had it's FDA panel yet, so I imagine there's some volatility ahead to trade this either way.  Same for OREX.  VVUS has additional clinical data due out and that could cause it fly or plummet according to whether the data is good or bad for Qnexa.  

Also, no matter how amazing a drug is, the stock price of the pharma selling it always seems to go down after an approval date.  So, if we pay attention and check our greed at the door, there's money to be made coming and going with these stocks.  

If you want more info on FDA approval plays, Adam Feuerstein (@adamfeuerstein) has compiled a great list of the October pharmas awaiting approval.  Two excellent sites for FDA catalyst information are www.biorunup.com, hosted by @Biorunup, and www.biopharmcatalyst.com, hosted by @crusadernz.  

Have a great week everyone!

Monday, July 12th Portfolio Update, Trade Ideas

Aloha all and whew, what a week!!  I've been working out details with a buyer for our current home (we close at the end of August) and wrapping up at my office (my official end date is August 27th).  I'm also looking for a new place in the city we're moving to and finishing up details of my daughter's entry into an arts school for wee ones.  Most importantly tho, I am happily, healthfully nearing the end of my second trimester.  I will try to keep the blog updated but it is toward the end of a long To Do list.  It is also the Tour de France and I watch every stage.  Tho, I think I speak for many American cyclists when I say the race took a sad turn in Stage 8 when Lance had 3 falls and lost 11+ minutes to the leaders.

THANK YOU to @nzcrusader and @kstan007 for your help with twitpics.  From here on out, my plan is to blog my completed trades with twitpics weekly and add a MTD total of gains/losses.  I said I'd show the good, the bad, and the ugly, so please learn from what I do well and more importantly, learn from my mistakes (I reference AVNR below when I just needed to walk away and stop trading like a feral cat scratching at a tree.  I should've just bought it, lol).

The more I put things in black and white, the more I realize that I am not a daytrader.  I find that  documenting my trades is a humbling albeit necessary process.  My IRA fares better consistently and it's because I practice patience with that account.  I do best when I buy and hold for a period of a week or more based on a catalyst I'm expecting.  

Taxable Accounts MTD +/-: 1,258.21

IRA Account MTD +/-: 2,462.20

Taxable Account- ARNA (+$409.79)

Taxable Account- VVUS (+699.82)

Taxable Account- AVNR (-123.75)

Taxable Account- BIOD (+272.35)

IRA Account- VVUS (+2,462.20)

Trade Ideas:

I would love for the VVUS panel to express concern re: Qnexa but KEEP the FDA approval date as is.  If so, I will buy when the price drops.  I am prepping my portfolio so I can be in hibernate mode to some extent as I attend to moving/work/family the next month or so.  I am holding MELA and plan to for the next 6-7 weeks.  Part of me would like to see a bear raid drag it down to the low 6s so I can add my last block of shares for a full position.  JAZZ is on my add list for a 6-7 week hold.  QCOR is another possible addition for a 6-8 week hold.  BIOD, ALXA, JAZZ, ARNA and AVNR are on my list of adds for 2-3 month holds, tho I'm hoping ARNA and AVNR drop down from here first).  I likely won't do a lot of trading beyond those for now.    

Thursday July 1st Portfolio Update

Taxable Accounts:
July 1st: $47,999.46
June 29th: $ 48,349.46
June 21st: $45,321.35
June 14th: $49,077.35
June 7th: $49,766.50
June 1st: $48,081.00

Currently, I still have $1,750 in my options account. I have $46,249.46 in my stock trading account. The variation from Tuesday, June 29th is from the JSDA I am still holding short, which saw a small rally yesterday. So, I ended up walking away from June with about a $100 loss. Given the market action, could've been far worse, but it's hard not looking at folks like @johnwleshphd and feeling sorry for myself, lol!

IRA: I am largely cash right now in my IRA. I don't trade it, but rather buy and hold positions for 3-4 months. have holding BIOD from 4.16 for a few months (wow, wish I'd taken some profit on this one and bought back), ARNA from 3.06 and VVUS from 10.68.

July Trade Ideas:
For bios, I'll be watching ARNA, SNTS, VVUS, PGNX, MELA and BIOD. I like CRUS for trading and may jump back into FAS/FAZ trades, which I dabbled in during the big crash a year ago.

Goal for the Month: Figure out this twitpic thing and starting posting pics of my trades for greater transparency. I don't know that anyone out there is that interested, but at least it keeps me honest and thinking through my trades on one more level.