Mea culpa for the lag in updating my portfolio. I am in the process of selling my place in DC to relocate at the end of the summer, so it's been hectic. I also just submitted my resignation (am working til the end of August) to my employer of several years. These are all good changes, but big ones.
The week of June 14th, I traded like a "crack addled gypsy" (credit goes to @kuna100 for another evocative description when he tweeted this a month or more ago:) and lost money on just about everything I touched (AMLN, QCOR, CRUS). The week of the 21st I basically just hung out on the sidelines and nursed my wounds, trying not to obsessively check my JSDA short position every 10 minutes on my Iphone. On the plus side, I sold IPHAF out of my IRA at .40 a day or two before it tanked. I almost upped my sell price and then decided to stick with target, and am happy I did. That freed up some purchasing power in my IRA that I'll sit on for now.
June 29th: $ 48,349.46
June 21st: $45,321.35
June 14th: $49,077.35
June 7th: $49,766.50
June 1st: $48,081.00
Currently, I have only $1,750 in my options account, down from $2,827.21 a few weeks ago. QCOR kicked my tuckus and I am remembering why I don't trade much in options- in short, I kind of suck at options trading. I still hold September ALXA and BIOD calls. I have $46,599.46 in my stock trading account.
Some Lessons I've learned:
1. Beware fear and greed. I could've taken profits the week of June 14th and didn't, turning them into losses. I could've cut my losses and taken some time off, but kept trading with a clouded mind instead. I should've bailed on trading before I lost as much of my portfolio as I did. Luckily, my JSDA short has mostly made up for it this week, but that's just another reminder to set targets, be patient, and keep perspective.
2. I do best when I place 1-2 trades a week and let them sit a bit. Guess that makes me more of a swing than day trader. I get caught up in the adrenaline rush (loss or gain) and find myself trading when I don't need to.
3. TAKE THE PROFITS when I can. Yes, yes, yes, I say this weekly. How long it will take me to learn, who knows?
4. Keep perspective. Be willing to take a break, it's the only way I can get perspective. Story hour with my daughter, the gym, a book. Anything that takes my mind away from trading. Too much of any one thing destroys my clarity regarding it, and appreciation.
5. It's ok to make mistakes- just learn from them.
Trade Playlist updates for June 29th-July 2nd, 2010:
I am traveling again at the end of this week, and the market is messsymessy, so don't know I'll trade much. I am watching VVUS, BIOD, QCOR for buys, but if I pick up some shares, will do some gradually.
I'd love to go all in on some smoking risky trade and end the month up big, but I figure sometimes not losing money is good enough.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Sunday, June 13th Weekly Portfolio Update and Trading Ideas
Portfolio Update:
June 14th: $49,077.35
June 7th: $49,766.50
June 1st: $48,081.00
Currently, I have $2,827.21 in my options account and $46,250.14 in my stock account. My June calls for JAZZ are nearly worthless, as are my ARNA September calls. While I'm hopeful ARNA options will recover, I think I'll end up sitting on a loss from the JAZZ calls. My $5 June QCOR puts are down, my $5 July QCOR puts are up. My $10 July QCOR puts are b/e.
I have a weekly loss of about $700. I originally had a sell order for all my JSDA at 1.55 and then thought it'd keep dropping so only sold 1/3 a week ago. While I have a nice gain from that 1/3, and am still green on the 2/3 I own (avg SP 1.996), I played this one poorly from a ST gains perspective. I didn't anticipate the support it's found over the last week. Had I sold half or or all at 1.55, I could've reshorted it when it spiked again this week or moved on and traded another stock.
June 7th-June 11th Trades
I exited my two LT positions (BIOD, ARNA) on pops this week, tho I still took losses on both, in this account to have cash free, and will likely reenter them later. I hate to take a loss, but I hate having cash tied up unnecesarily more. If my original hypothesis is correct and these stocks go back up between now and October, I can always reenter. I made trades in QCOR, IMA and PPCO this week. For QCOR I went short and bought QCOR July $10 puts. I'd hoped to short $DCTH and $OXGN but couldn't find shares to short Monday when I looked for them. I thought about shorting RPRX on the news their clinical trial was lifted but shorting stocks that inexspensive tie up considerable money in that I have to hold a $2.50 in cash for every share of sub $1 stock I short. I decided to keep cash free for QCOR. I took a $300 bath on impatience in the IMA trade, and broke even on a PPCO trade. Overall, I felt off my game this week so decided it was better to stay on the sidelines than to frustrate myself trading if my gut was off and my time limited.
Current $QCOR positions:
Short shares $10.12 (Thursday)
June $5 puts (holding)
July $5 puts (holding)
July $10 puts (added Friday)
Some Lessons I've learned regarding options:
1. Keep options expiry relative to catalyst date in mind when purchasing. Given that QCOR news wasn't due until 6/11, and options expiration is 6/17, I think I cut it too close buyign June options.
2. Go for quality, not quantity. The price for the $5 puts was compelling and seemed like an easy doubly given they only had to go up 10-15 cents from my purchase price for that double to happen. However, $5 is a far cry from the current SP, even after the news Friday, so I'll be curious to see how the put price is affected next week- if I'm able to turn a profit, b/e, or even get out of the June options.
3. TAKE THE PROFITS when I can. I could've sold JAZZ for a profit early on but ended up holding through the correction.
4. Be willing to trade quickly with options. As I said, I need to take profit when i can. I'm trying to find how to balance LT vs. ST options in my account, and what the LT return is when buying options a few months out from catalyst dates.
My thoughts on QCOR:
I think the QCOR delay is a formality. This drug has been used off label for decades for infantile spasms and I don't see why it wouldn't be approved formally for that use in September. Yes, there is a limited data sampling but that's in part due to the fact that the market for this indication is relatively small (no pun intended:) and it's difficult to get mass data to support the benefits of the drug. That said, only one drug is currently approved for IS, Vigabatrin, which was approved in August, 2009 (thank you to the Anonymous comment poster:) on my blog as I'd read differently). I am hoping for a retrace to the 8s, tho think this may be overly optimistic, and will look to cover my short as well as investment opportunities for another approval run into September. I will watch September calls closely, and likely invest in the possible catalyst pop that way instead of buying stock, given the price of QCOR. I think QCOR is a biopharmaceutical with a strong balance sheet and Athcar sales are growing significantly for use with MS patients. In my opionion, that is where the money will be made with Acthar, not infantile spasms. The cost for IS treatment with Acthar is very expensive ($100,000 for a year of treatment), so I don't know that much more revenue will be generated by IS patients with this approval. However, the FDA approval has brought attention and speculators to the stock, so perhaps we can benefit from that. When the dust of traders moving on after final word from the FDA settles in September, 2010, I think we could see a significant retrace of the stock even with strong MS sales given the attention and SP increase it's seen the last few months. Some more QCOR information:
Questcor Website
Acthar Delay PR
QCOR 1st Quarter Report
Acthar and MS
Acthar Cost for Children with IS- $100,000 annually
Trade Playlist updates for June 14th-June 18th, 2010
I may be traveling this week to check out schools and real estate out of state where we may be relocating, so I am not taking on a lot this week. For this week, my potential playlist is: QCOR and JSDA. Yes, verrrry boring, I know, but there we are. I still think JSDA will retrace, tho I'll be looking to lock in profits and move on if it doesn't go the direction I'd like this week. I'm very curious to see how QCOR plays out. Of course I'll be looking for other possible trades, but need to be cognizant of time/attention limitations I may have this week.
June 14th: $49,077.35
June 7th: $49,766.50
June 1st: $48,081.00
Currently, I have $2,827.21 in my options account and $46,250.14 in my stock account. My June calls for JAZZ are nearly worthless, as are my ARNA September calls. While I'm hopeful ARNA options will recover, I think I'll end up sitting on a loss from the JAZZ calls. My $5 June QCOR puts are down, my $5 July QCOR puts are up. My $10 July QCOR puts are b/e.
I have a weekly loss of about $700. I originally had a sell order for all my JSDA at 1.55 and then thought it'd keep dropping so only sold 1/3 a week ago. While I have a nice gain from that 1/3, and am still green on the 2/3 I own (avg SP 1.996), I played this one poorly from a ST gains perspective. I didn't anticipate the support it's found over the last week. Had I sold half or or all at 1.55, I could've reshorted it when it spiked again this week or moved on and traded another stock.
June 7th-June 11th Trades
I exited my two LT positions (BIOD, ARNA) on pops this week, tho I still took losses on both, in this account to have cash free, and will likely reenter them later. I hate to take a loss, but I hate having cash tied up unnecesarily more. If my original hypothesis is correct and these stocks go back up between now and October, I can always reenter. I made trades in QCOR, IMA and PPCO this week. For QCOR I went short and bought QCOR July $10 puts. I'd hoped to short $DCTH and $OXGN but couldn't find shares to short Monday when I looked for them. I thought about shorting RPRX on the news their clinical trial was lifted but shorting stocks that inexspensive tie up considerable money in that I have to hold a $2.50 in cash for every share of sub $1 stock I short. I decided to keep cash free for QCOR. I took a $300 bath on impatience in the IMA trade, and broke even on a PPCO trade. Overall, I felt off my game this week so decided it was better to stay on the sidelines than to frustrate myself trading if my gut was off and my time limited.
Current $QCOR positions:
Short shares $10.12 (Thursday)
June $5 puts (holding)
July $5 puts (holding)
July $10 puts (added Friday)
Some Lessons I've learned regarding options:
1. Keep options expiry relative to catalyst date in mind when purchasing. Given that QCOR news wasn't due until 6/11, and options expiration is 6/17, I think I cut it too close buyign June options.
2. Go for quality, not quantity. The price for the $5 puts was compelling and seemed like an easy doubly given they only had to go up 10-15 cents from my purchase price for that double to happen. However, $5 is a far cry from the current SP, even after the news Friday, so I'll be curious to see how the put price is affected next week- if I'm able to turn a profit, b/e, or even get out of the June options.
3. TAKE THE PROFITS when I can. I could've sold JAZZ for a profit early on but ended up holding through the correction.
4. Be willing to trade quickly with options. As I said, I need to take profit when i can. I'm trying to find how to balance LT vs. ST options in my account, and what the LT return is when buying options a few months out from catalyst dates.
My thoughts on QCOR:
I think the QCOR delay is a formality. This drug has been used off label for decades for infantile spasms and I don't see why it wouldn't be approved formally for that use in September. Yes, there is a limited data sampling but that's in part due to the fact that the market for this indication is relatively small (no pun intended:) and it's difficult to get mass data to support the benefits of the drug. That said, only one drug is currently approved for IS, Vigabatrin, which was approved in August, 2009 (thank you to the Anonymous comment poster:) on my blog as I'd read differently). I am hoping for a retrace to the 8s, tho think this may be overly optimistic, and will look to cover my short as well as investment opportunities for another approval run into September. I will watch September calls closely, and likely invest in the possible catalyst pop that way instead of buying stock, given the price of QCOR. I think QCOR is a biopharmaceutical with a strong balance sheet and Athcar sales are growing significantly for use with MS patients. In my opionion, that is where the money will be made with Acthar, not infantile spasms. The cost for IS treatment with Acthar is very expensive ($100,000 for a year of treatment), so I don't know that much more revenue will be generated by IS patients with this approval. However, the FDA approval has brought attention and speculators to the stock, so perhaps we can benefit from that. When the dust of traders moving on after final word from the FDA settles in September, 2010, I think we could see a significant retrace of the stock even with strong MS sales given the attention and SP increase it's seen the last few months. Some more QCOR information:
Questcor Website
Acthar Delay PR
QCOR 1st Quarter Report
Acthar and MS
Acthar Cost for Children with IS- $100,000 annually
Trade Playlist updates for June 14th-June 18th, 2010
I may be traveling this week to check out schools and real estate out of state where we may be relocating, so I am not taking on a lot this week. For this week, my potential playlist is: QCOR and JSDA. Yes, verrrry boring, I know, but there we are. I still think JSDA will retrace, tho I'll be looking to lock in profits and move on if it doesn't go the direction I'd like this week. I'm very curious to see how QCOR plays out. Of course I'll be looking for other possible trades, but need to be cognizant of time/attention limitations I may have this week.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Sunday, June 6th Portfolio Update and Weekly Trade Ideas
Portfolio Update: My current taxable portfolio is worth $49,766.50, up from the $48,081 I started June with. I have $3,371.12 in my options account and $46,395.38 in my stock account.
June 1st-June 4th Trades
I made two trades this week: JSDA (short) and JAV (long). I traded JAV twice (tho only tweeted once as I didn't realize my second entry until after it seemed fair to post). I made a total of $899.85 on JAV. Thus far, I am sitting on a paper profit of $1316 on JSDA. My LT positions in that account (ALXA, ARNA) lost me about $500.
I shorted JSDA at 1.60, 18.85, 2.10 and 2.20 for a final average SP of 1.996. I am still holding 2/3 of my position. I anticipate it may spike again Monday depending on market conditions. It's been pumped a lot by penny sites so may gain some momo from that so I'll need to decide if I should cover some more here and reshort on a spike or sit tight and wait for a drop. I'm still holding because I think this could see 1.50 or lower on a retrace. That said, I've been reminded of some lessons thanks to JSDA:
1. Phase in to positions so if you need to avg up or down you can do so accordingly. I needed to avg up in my JSDA position and ended up with a larger position than I normally would because I started with buys that were too big. Beginning with a smaller initial position, or setting my short price higher even if it meant I didn't catch the trade would have been two ways to avoid overinvesting in one security. I bought a day early and so had to ride up a sizeable pop.
2. Take profits. I decided to lower one of my cover orders for JSDA and as a result am sitting on shares worth 1.80 instead of having shed another third of my position at 1.65. I did lock in profit on JAV, and that accounts for about half of the increase in my portfolio tho I invested a smaller amount of money.
Trade Playlist updates for June 6th-June 11th, 2010:
PGNX was due for FDA news on Friday and didn't receive any. As this is not a PDUFA date for a new drug formulary, but rather a new drug delivery system for an existing drug (prefilled syringes) I don't know that it will show any sort of significant action either way on FDA news, and am taking it off my play list.
For this week, my potential playlist is: QCOR, OXGN and DCTH. QCOR is due for an FDA approval on June 11th. This is not new drug, but rather approval of their drug Athcar gel for a new purpose. Athcar is already marketed for MS and used off label for infantile spasms. The approval would be an official FDA shout out saying they recommend Athcar for the use of infantile spasms. Given it's monster run (based in part on FDA approval anticipation and in part of solid Q results) I imagine we'll see some sell off on an approval spike.
DCTH and OXGN both presented clinical trial results at ASCO this weekend. To read more about what they presented:
Reuters Article on Delcath Melanoma Clinical Trial results
@Stocks MD- His Thoughts on Delcath Clinical Trial
Oxigen Phase 2 Lung Cancer Trial Results
Positions:
Outside of my JSDA position, I own three different put options in the months of June and July for QCOR. I think the June puts may be problematic in terms of liquidating them given the proximity of expiry to the date news is due, but here's hoping for the best.
I will look to trade DCTH and OXGN based on how the trial result news influences the SP.
June 1st-June 4th Trades
I made two trades this week: JSDA (short) and JAV (long). I traded JAV twice (tho only tweeted once as I didn't realize my second entry until after it seemed fair to post). I made a total of $899.85 on JAV. Thus far, I am sitting on a paper profit of $1316 on JSDA. My LT positions in that account (ALXA, ARNA) lost me about $500.
I shorted JSDA at 1.60, 18.85, 2.10 and 2.20 for a final average SP of 1.996. I am still holding 2/3 of my position. I anticipate it may spike again Monday depending on market conditions. It's been pumped a lot by penny sites so may gain some momo from that so I'll need to decide if I should cover some more here and reshort on a spike or sit tight and wait for a drop. I'm still holding because I think this could see 1.50 or lower on a retrace. That said, I've been reminded of some lessons thanks to JSDA:
1. Phase in to positions so if you need to avg up or down you can do so accordingly. I needed to avg up in my JSDA position and ended up with a larger position than I normally would because I started with buys that were too big. Beginning with a smaller initial position, or setting my short price higher even if it meant I didn't catch the trade would have been two ways to avoid overinvesting in one security. I bought a day early and so had to ride up a sizeable pop.
2. Take profits. I decided to lower one of my cover orders for JSDA and as a result am sitting on shares worth 1.80 instead of having shed another third of my position at 1.65. I did lock in profit on JAV, and that accounts for about half of the increase in my portfolio tho I invested a smaller amount of money.
Trade Playlist updates for June 6th-June 11th, 2010:
PGNX was due for FDA news on Friday and didn't receive any. As this is not a PDUFA date for a new drug formulary, but rather a new drug delivery system for an existing drug (prefilled syringes) I don't know that it will show any sort of significant action either way on FDA news, and am taking it off my play list.
For this week, my potential playlist is: QCOR, OXGN and DCTH. QCOR is due for an FDA approval on June 11th. This is not new drug, but rather approval of their drug Athcar gel for a new purpose. Athcar is already marketed for MS and used off label for infantile spasms. The approval would be an official FDA shout out saying they recommend Athcar for the use of infantile spasms. Given it's monster run (based in part on FDA approval anticipation and in part of solid Q results) I imagine we'll see some sell off on an approval spike.
DCTH and OXGN both presented clinical trial results at ASCO this weekend. To read more about what they presented:
Reuters Article on Delcath Melanoma Clinical Trial results
@Stocks MD- His Thoughts on Delcath Clinical Trial
Oxigen Phase 2 Lung Cancer Trial Results
Positions:
Outside of my JSDA position, I own three different put options in the months of June and July for QCOR. I think the June puts may be problematic in terms of liquidating them given the proximity of expiry to the date news is due, but here's hoping for the best.
I will look to trade DCTH and OXGN based on how the trial result news influences the SP.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
June Starting Balances/Holdings, Goals, ASCO and the FDA
My current taxable portfolio is worth $48,081. I have $3,400 in an options account and $44,600 in my stock account.
At the end of June, I'll transfer anything above $50,000 to a savings account. If my account falls to $40,000, my husband will do an intervention and take the account away:)
I prematurely transferred $10,000 in May profits before the week closed out and then my $NBIX short rallied and left me 2k below my mark. So I am starting June with a small deficit. It was a really good learning lesson about locking in profits and controlling greed. All in all though, I'm very happy with May beyond the gray hairs I grew watching the market correct. I was reminded to wait for my target, execute it, and get out when it's time.
My goal is to earn between $1,000-2,000 weekly trading until I go on maternity leave in mid-October. It's ambitious, I know, especially for a part time trader. Sometimes I make it and other times I don't. I am giving myself until October to see if I can be successful with my goals. My family is expanding and my trading profits are going into a house downpayment savings account.
I am holding (and sometimes trading) ALXA, VVUS, BIOD, ARNA, JAZZ in my IRA or taxable in anticipation of October FDA approval dates. This month PGNX, QCOR and VVUS are on my play list. Each has a catalyst. The first two have FDA approval dates, June 4th and 11th respectively, the third is releasing clinical trial info for their erectile drug and has an FDA panel meeting for it's weight loss drug next month. I am also watching the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting, which runs June 4th-8th in Chicago. Several bios are presenting clinical trial information and may be good for pop or drop plays. I am watching ARQL, KERX, AEZS, HNAB, GNBT, DCTH and CDLX.
For more info on ASCO plays, I'd suggest reading:
John Welsh's ASCO write up
Adam Feuerstein's ASCO write up on The Street
Biorunup's writeup ASCO and the "Run Up Method"
Mike Havrilla's ASCO Coverage (multiple links on his site)
At the end of June, I'll transfer anything above $50,000 to a savings account. If my account falls to $40,000, my husband will do an intervention and take the account away:)
I prematurely transferred $10,000 in May profits before the week closed out and then my $NBIX short rallied and left me 2k below my mark. So I am starting June with a small deficit. It was a really good learning lesson about locking in profits and controlling greed. All in all though, I'm very happy with May beyond the gray hairs I grew watching the market correct. I was reminded to wait for my target, execute it, and get out when it's time.
My goal is to earn between $1,000-2,000 weekly trading until I go on maternity leave in mid-October. It's ambitious, I know, especially for a part time trader. Sometimes I make it and other times I don't. I am giving myself until October to see if I can be successful with my goals. My family is expanding and my trading profits are going into a house downpayment savings account.
I am holding (and sometimes trading) ALXA, VVUS, BIOD, ARNA, JAZZ in my IRA or taxable in anticipation of October FDA approval dates. This month PGNX, QCOR and VVUS are on my play list. Each has a catalyst. The first two have FDA approval dates, June 4th and 11th respectively, the third is releasing clinical trial info for their erectile drug and has an FDA panel meeting for it's weight loss drug next month. I am also watching the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting, which runs June 4th-8th in Chicago. Several bios are presenting clinical trial information and may be good for pop or drop plays. I am watching ARQL, KERX, AEZS, HNAB, GNBT, DCTH and CDLX.
For more info on ASCO plays, I'd suggest reading:
John Welsh's ASCO write up
Adam Feuerstein's ASCO write up on The Street
Biorunup's writeup ASCO and the "Run Up Method"
Mike Havrilla's ASCO Coverage (multiple links on his site)
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