Monday, July 19th Portfolio Update, Trade Ideas

I traded two names last week- VVUS (long) and AVNR (short). From the looks of things, I should've held onto my AVNR short. Here's an update from my accounts (only closed trades in the taxable account this week):

Taxable Accounts MTD +/-: 2,364.68

IRA Account MTD +/-: 2,462.20

VVUS (+760.69)

AVNR (+345.78)

I am travelling every weekend until the movers arrive in August because my husband is in the midst of his cycling season. I adore him, so I end up on a lot of road trips with picnic lunches in sweltering heat watching a peloton of sweaty men in spandex go by this time of year.  Nobody talks about this sort of thing before you get married, but this is the ugly truth about compromise, people;)

Since I won't be in front of a computer with much consistency, I am focused on adding to positions for 6-12 week holds. With the MELA and JAZZ FDA panels in September,  and a ton of FDA approval dates in October, I'm more than happy to buy and wait.  Between my IRA and taxable accounts, I am holding VVUS, which I picked up after the plummet, BIOD, MELA and JAZZ.  And part of my JSDA short.   I will add to any of these four positions on any substantial dip before their catalyst dates.  I'll likely buy some AVNR and ARNA as well, when ARNA finally comes back down to earth.

I've had a number of folks ask what I think of specific drugs or chances of approval, and all I can say is this: No matter how amazing or horrible a drug is, the pharmaceutical company that owns is seems to go up in price before the FDA panel or approval date.  Case in point, I think ARNA's weight loss drug barely, if it truly did, meet efficacy.  Safety is great, but who will pay for a drug that doesn't work?  I can sit at home and not lose weight for free!   However, the price it's at now shows how a subpar drug can still rocket a stock price up on anticipation of approval.  ARNA hasn't even had it's FDA panel yet, so I imagine there's some volatility ahead to trade this either way.  Same for OREX.  VVUS has additional clinical data due out and that could cause it fly or plummet according to whether the data is good or bad for Qnexa.  

Also, no matter how amazing a drug is, the stock price of the pharma selling it always seems to go down after an approval date.  So, if we pay attention and check our greed at the door, there's money to be made coming and going with these stocks.  

If you want more info on FDA approval plays, Adam Feuerstein (@adamfeuerstein) has compiled a great list of the October pharmas awaiting approval.  Two excellent sites for FDA catalyst information are www.biorunup.com, hosted by @Biorunup, and www.biopharmcatalyst.com, hosted by @crusadernz.  

Have a great week everyone!